MMA WEEKLY COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR WEEK OF 10-19-09

Comments: Please take a moment to view my weekly geocosmic comments on the stock market, at http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm. Or, you can go to www.mmacycles.com, and then choose Weekly Preview. You can also go to www.stariq.com, and then look up "market week." It is also now available at www.tradingthecharts.com in English. We are also pleased to announce that these weekly geocosmic comments are now available in German, at http://www.astrodata.com/shop.asp?action=weeklycontent&ccat=1&nav=45, or www.astrodata.ch, or www.mma-europe-ch. And they are now available in Dutch at www.markettiming.nl. In French on our own web site at www.mmacycles.com, and in Japanese at http://merriman.jp. The report is available in Polish at http://www.astrobiznes.pl/mma.htm, Spanish at www.mmacycles-spanish.com, Serbian at www.mma-balkan.com, and now we are pleased to announce in Russia at www.urania.ru. Other languages available can be viewed from the website at http://www.lecochonsideral.info/PubliMERRI/AccueilMerri.html, and http://www.lecochonsideral.info/PubliMERRI/Francais/Annee2007/semaine.html.

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DJIA Cash: Last week's close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 13th time in 14 weeks, which means it is upgraded back to trend run up. A close below 9760 will downgrade it right back to neutral. Weekly support is 9853-9872. A close below 9853 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 10,101-10,120. A close above 10,120 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 8266-8433. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 9671-10,045 (the market closed in there again), 10,739-10,825, 12,094-12,161, 12,432-12,496, 12,817-12,856, 13,088-13,254, and 13,825-13,969.

This starts the 15th week of the 13-21 week primary following the 8087 low of July 8. It also starts the 3rd week of the third (and final) 5-7 week major cycle off the 9430 low of October 2 - unless that was a contracted 12-week primary cycle (in which case the market could be very bullish for several weeks). As stated last week, "If it is a new primary cycle, prices could explode upwards from here. But even if it was a major cycle trough, prices could explode upwards from here for the next 2-4 weeks, because third phases of primary cycles are of three types, and one of those types allows for an upside "blow-off" to unfold, followed by an equally severe 2-5 week to the final primary bottom." One of these is happening. If this is the thirds major cycle phase of an older primary cycle, then this rally could end at any time. It could have ended on Thursday's new yearly high at 10.062, or it could continue into this week with the Mercury trine Jupiter and the Sagittarius Factor into Tuesday-Thursday. And if it goes beyond that, we have to look at the Venus translation in trine to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, October 28-November 2. However, in the last instance, that would suggest this is a newer primary cycle. An older one should be topping out here. And if that is the case, then once this older primary cycle tops out, we should see a strong 2-5 week decline to the primary cycle trough, back to 9400 area, maybe much further. We are also aware that Venus is in Libra Oct 14-Nov 6, and this time band can correspond to a primary cycle top. As you can see, we are in it now. But my point is… the geocosmics can allow for a continued rally for a few more days, even a couple more weeks. Yet it is late in the primary cycle, so it could also top out at any time and begin that 2-5 week decline, which could be 10-20% down in price.

Technically, the market is still bullish and in a "trend run up" on its trend indicator signal. As long as the market remains above the 25-day moving average (currently at 9768 and rising), there is nothing to say it can't continue higher. As stated last week, "market explodes up in the final phase of a cycle, the rule is: the higher it goes, the harder it falls. If the market can close above 10,000, then we look to the 10,300-10,600 area for a top." Well it did that on a daily basis Wednesday and Thursday, but not on Friday's close for a weekly basis. So…. There remain arguments to support either the bullish and bearish outlook. There is no high confidence sell signal yet, and the market is still technically bullish. But it is also late in the primary cycle (most likely) from which reversals could start at any time.

Lunar cycles for this week are as follows. Anything above 120 means there is a higher than expected probability of a reversal from an isolated high or low:

Oct 16 131.0*
Oct 19-20 123.6*
Oct 21-22 57.0##
Oct 23 118.9*
Oct 26-27 123.7**
Oct 28-29 114.5
Oct 30 110.0

Strategy: Traders are still advised to look for signs of a top to form at anytime in the next two weeks, and to sell short for a 2-5 week decline of 10-20%. If you connect a trend line up from the low of July 8 through the low of September 3, you will see an extension of this former upward trend line that offers resistance to this rally. It starts this week around 10,130. If it closes above, then look for 10,300-10,600.

SPZ (Dec S&P): Last week's high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 13th time in 14 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1055.10 will downgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 1065.55-1066.95. A close below 1065.55 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1095.75-1097.05. A close above 1097.05 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remains in effect at 889.55-902.40 and 791.10-791.25. A bearish crossover zone at 1012.75-1074.45 was broke. Others remain in effect at 1156.15-1180, 1384.80-1388.55, 1456.15-1473.80, and 1540.35-1559.60 in the nearby contract.

This will start the 15th week of the 5-23 week primary cycle here as well. It is also the 3rd week of the third 5-8 week major cycle phase, following the Oct 2 low at 1012.10. As stated last week, "… prices closed above the 25-day moving average, confirming the low of October 2 was the major cycle trough. It also means this starts the third and final major cycle phase, in which prices can either explode to new yearly highs, or simply test the 1075.50 high of September 23 for a double top, after which a sharp 2-5 week decline will unfold into the primary cycle trough, back to the low of October 2 (1012.10) or lower." It is exploding up, but if in deed this is the third major cycle phase, it is apt to come back down to the 1012 area again once this rally is over. But if this is the 3rd week of a newer primary cycle, it can go much higher. No clear sign yet that the reversal down has begun, although if it is the third phase of an older cycle, it could top out at any time, and maybe even topped out Thursday. A close below the 25-day MA would suggest top is in. That avg is now at 1057.40 and rising.

Strategy: Only for aggressive traders, who can look for signs to sell short Tuesday-Thursday of this week, assuming there is a rally into there, and it doesn't close above weekly resistance.

NDZ (Dec NASDAQ): Last week's high was into weekly resistance, which held, and the close was back between support-resistance, which is neutral but with a bearish bias. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 13th time in 14 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1707 downgrades it back to neutral. Wkly support is 1712-1713. A close below 1712 is bearish. A trade below there followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1751-1753. A close above 1753 is bullish, while a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1649-1662 in Dec, which held the low nicely and offers support to the bulls, and 1442-1463 in Sept. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 2059-2103 and 2141-2192 in the nearby.

This starts the 15th week of a new 15-23 week primary cycle. It also starts the 3rd week of the third and final 5-8 week major cycle phase. NDZ made a slightly higher new yearly high on Wednesday (1755 compared to 1754 on Sept 23), but closed with a bearish bias, which might mean that is the primary cycle crest. A close below the 25-day MA would suggest it is so (currently at 1713 and rising).

Strategy: Last week's strategy was, "Thus, traders may either still be short with a stop-loss on a close above 1754, or they covered some positions (maybe all). Aggressive traders could look to sell short early this week if NDZ does not close above 1754." So, remain short with a stop-loss now on a close above 1755. You could also buy QID or PSQ, the ETF's that go up when this market goes down. If that was the primary top, then look for the decline to continue for 2-5 weeks to the primary cycle trough.

EUC (Euro Cash): Last week's close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 8th time in the past 9 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1.4715 this week will downgrade it back to neutral. Weekly support is 1.4757-1.4779. A close below 1.4757 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.5021-1.5049. A weekly close above 1.4715 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4387-1.4400, 1.3622-1.3676, 1.2425-1.2474, 1.2166-1.2189 and 1.2015-1.2040. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.5322-1.5458.

This now starts the 33rd week of the 21-34 week primary cycle when prices should be coming down. But instead, they continue making new highs, which suggests this will be an expanded (distorted) primary cycle. These are always the hardest to trade because they don't follow standard cycle rules, and this happens about 15-20% of the time. And when it happens, it is usually accompanied by a "blow-off" to the upside, which is the case this time too. Yet, the rule is, the higher they go, the harder they fall, when the reversal does commence.

Nevertheless, the Euro currency made a new yearly high against the US Dollar with the move up to 1.4967 last week. As stated in last week's report, "It is also possible for this cycle to expand, as the crest that now forms may be a longer-term cycle type, like the 17-month cycle type. There is also some danger that if this rally makes anew high above 1.5000, it could be very explosive, as panic selling hits the U.S. Dollar. This is possible, for transiting Pluto is in opposition to the U.S. Dollar, and Saturn is still in its opposition to Uranus through next August. The first signature allows the possibility of a dollar collapse, and the second the possibility of yet another market panic-crisis." Indeed, there are signs of a panic developing in the Dollar's decline.

So the question is: will central banks step in and make surprise policy changes to support the Dollar? Will they let it continue to fall, risking a real panic? It is so late in the primary cycle that we have to assume they will step in and try to stop the slide. With Saturn about to enter Libra and square the Federal Reserve Board Sun-Pluto opposition (October 29-November 15), I think the Fed will be forced to do something to strengthen the Dollar. There is technical warning even now as the 15-day slow stochastics started to curl down on Friday. If they can fall below 71% with K widening its distance below D, we will have a good sell signal. A close below the 25-day moving average will be another signal. Currently that is at 1.4715 and rising. But until those things happen, the market is still in a bullish mode as we test the 1.5000 mark.

Strategy: Our short positions are now stopped out. Yet traders are advised to continue looking for signs of a top to sell into, followed by a sizeable 2-5 week decline to the primary cycle trough, back to the 1.4480 level or lower. In fact, it would likely break below the upward trend line off the low of last March, which starts this week at 1.4407 and is rising daily. One thing I like it is that the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen did not make a new high last week as the Euro currency did, which a case of intermarket bearish divergence. The high may already be in, and thus aggressive traders could look to sell short now, or into the Sagittarius Factor of Wednesday-Thursday this week, if there is a rally to a top or secondary top then.

EUZ (Dec Euro): Weekly support now is 1.47164-1.4737. Weekly resistance is 1.5036-1.5057. The weekly trend indicator point is 1.4717. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4392-1.4426 and 1.3601-1.3699. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.5290-1.5422 in the nearby contract. The difference between cash and December is .0006 to cash.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash): Last week's close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish, and follows the prior week's bullish trigger, and that is a bullish sequence. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st time in 10 weeks, which means it is upgrades to neutral. A close below 89.69 will downgrade it back to trend run down. Weekly support is 89.35-89.62. A weekly close below 89.35 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 91.87-92.14. A weekly close above 92.14 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 110.92-111.75, 116.25-117.09, and 120.34-120.58.

It finally closed above the 25-day moving average, and so it looks like the 87.98 low of October 7 was a 37-week primary cycle, which was an almost perfect hot because that was right on our October 6-7 critical reversal date. Therefore this begins the 2nd week of a new 26-40 week primary cycle. As stated last week, "It (low of Oct 7) is possible (primary low) because the time band for both cycle lows (major and primary) was in effect, and last Wednesday (October 7) was the three-star critical reversal date. A close above the 25-day moving average would confirm it, and that average starts this week at 90.56. We also got a case of bullish oscillator divergence, and a bullish double loop formation at Wednesday's low. If daily stochastics can now get above 25% with K widening its distance above D, it would be a good bullish sign of a new primary cycle in force." Bingo! All that happened. So now we look for prices to rally to a primary cycle crest at least 2-8 weeks from now. This is one reason to think the Dollar might now rally against all major currencies. The price target for the crest of this new primary cycle is 94.71 +/- 1.59. It is possible we could even see a test of this year's high of 101.45, unless prices suddenly reverse and fall below 87.98, which would mean there is probably a run (panic) on the dollar.

Strategy: Remain long with a stop-loss now below 87.98.

JYZ (Dec Yen): Last week's close was bearish. This week's support is 1.0854-1.0887. Weekly resistance is 1.1162-1.1195. The trend indicator point is now at 1.1157. Note how they all come together. A close back above there could mean the dollar is crashing again. The trend indicator point is neutral and will return to trend run up if it closes above there at end of week. A bullish crossover zone is in effect at 1.0850-1.0877.

Euro/Yen Spread - Cash: Last week's close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st time in 10 weeks, which means it is upgraded back to neutral. A close below 1.3216 will downgrade it back to trend run down. Weekly support is 1.3293-1.3338. A close below 1.3293 is bearish, and a trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.3701-1.3746. A close above 1.3746 is bullish, but a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4072-1.4096 and 1.5058-1.5325.

This will now start the 15th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle following the 1.2700 low of July 8. Instead of a classical three-[phase pattern of three 7-11 week major cycles, it looks like this will be a two-phase pattern consisting of two 11-17 week half-primary cycles, and the first one happened October 2 at 1.2901. This would be the 3rd week of the second 11-17 week half-primary cycle. Let's see if this rally can take out the top of the first half, which was 1.3870 on Aug 7. If so, it is a bullish cycle. But if not, then look for price s to fall again, below the 1.2901 low of Oct 2.

Our strategy: Traders may stand aside now, waiting for a stronger sign that the crest of this second half-primary cycle is forming. If that signal happens, then traders can then sell short with a stop-loss above 1.4000. It is possible that this crest is forming right now, since we can see a Lorusso 5-point reversal pattern shaping up. If so, the spread should not exceed 1.3900 this week.

SFZ (Dec Swiss Franc): Last week's close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st time in 3 weeks, which means it remains neutral. Weekly support is .9698-.9716. A close below .9698 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is .9923-.9941. A close above .9941 is bullish. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at .9502-.9531 and .8334-.8359.

This starts the 31st week of the 21-34 week primary cycle. Last week closed bullish, but Thursday's high of .9888 did not take out the .9920 high of Sep 23, and the Euro did. This will become a case of intermarket bearish divergence if both do not make new highs this week. Then close in the lower third of the week's range. In fact, I am expecting this, unless the Dollar just continues to collapse and the Fed sits on the sidelines watching it. I think (maybe I hope) something will happen to support the Dollar, and confirm its move up against the Yen isn't an isolated case. If correct, then this market is already in a decline e to its primary cycle trough, with a price objective down to .9255 +/- .0157. As stated last week, "However, as with Euro, there is a possibility that if it doesn't start to break down harder very soon, but instead rises to new highs, we could be seeing a panic and collapse in the USA Dollar."

Strategy: Aggressive traders may remain short with a stop-loss above 9920, especially on a weekly closing basis. We still need to see a close below weekly support to gain confidence in this position, but it is late in the primary cycle when declines are supposed to happen.

TYZ (Dec T-Notes): Last week's low was into weekly support, which held, and the close was between support-resistance, which is neutral but with a bullish bias. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point after being above it 8 of the prior 9 weeks, which means it is downgraded back to neutral. Weekly support is 117/14-117/17. A close below 117/14 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 118/26-118/29. A weekly close above 118/29 is bullish. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 118/30-119/12, 125/13-125/14, and 126/09-127/00 in the nearby contract.

This now starts the 19th week of the 16-20 week primary cycle, and the 10th week of the second 8-10 week half-primary cycle, unless those lows happened on Friday's low at 117/21. It's possible because the decline was 1) in the time band for the cycle low, 2) below the 25-day moving average, 3) was down the minimum 2 weeks form the crest of October 2, and 4) was within a possible geocosmic reversal zone (October 9-16). However, I would have preferred this decline to be lower, to our ideal price target of 115/26 +/- 1/00. It could still get there in the next week or so, as the daily stochastics are still pointed down and have not yet reached the usual oversold levels we like to see at primary cycle troughs.

Strategy: Traders may remain short now against a close above 119/12. However, look to cover at least half those short positions now as we are getting bullish trigger signs.

GCZ (Dec Gold): Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to trend run up. A close below 1031.30 this week will downgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 1037.40-1039.50. A close below 1037.40 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 1065.60-1067.80. A close above 1067.80 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 1014.80-1018.10. The market is not really bearish until this is broken to the downside.

This starts the 15th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle, and the 4th week of the third and final 5-7 week major cycle. Gold made a new all-time high last Wednesday when it reached 1072. But this is within our price range for a primary cycle crest, given previously as 1080 +/- 17.50. Since then, the 15-day slow stochastics have started to curl down. They start this week with K = 80.99% and now below D at 87.02%. If they fall below m71% with K widening its distance below K, it will be a sell signal, a sign that the primary cycle has topped out. In that case, we would look for this 2-5 week decline to a primary cycle trough, back to 989.80 +/- 19.40. Note that this is also around the previous major cycled trough, which was 985.50, back on Sep 25.

But right now there is no strong signal that the top was completed last week. And with the Sagittarius Factor coming up Wednesday and Thursday of this week, there could be another rally, assuming the daily stochastics do not give a sell signal first. Yet, as traders, we want to be short or look to get short because 1) it is late in the primary cycle, and 2) Venus is now in Libra Oct 14-Nov 6. As stated before, "The thing that makes me more bearish than bullish is the forthcoming transit of Venus through Libra, Oct 14-November 6, a time that typically corresponds to a primary cycle trough in Silver. That is why I suggested traders get out of most long positions in the last 1-2 weeks, and prepare to buy back in at that time. On any move down, Gold must stay above 960, or else it re-enters a former contracting triangle, and that would be bearish….Nevertheless, this market remains bullish (longer-term) until prices close below the new bullish crossover zone." If at any time the market closes below 960, however, the longer-term cycle turns bearish, and we would look for a drop to 800 area or lower in 2010. It's possible, if the Dollar doesn't enter a panic and collapse… which is also possible. I can't stress enough how critical this period is now as we prepare for the Saturn-Pluto square of November-August, all the while that Saturn remains in opposition to Uranus too.

Strategy: We are looking to buy if Gold prices can decline for at least two weeks, and preferably back below 1000 (say 975-999). Aggressive traders could look to sell short, in the meantime, as long as prices remain below 1100. In this idea, one could look to sell if prices rally into Wednesday or early Thursday of this week, when Moon is in early Sagittarius.

SIZ (Dec Silver): Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, but it was a down week, which means it is in neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Wkly support is 1693-1703. A close below 1693 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1790-1800. A close above 1799.50 is bullish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1667-1673, 1511-1536 and 1096-1103. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1881-1987 in the nearby contract.

This starts the 14th week of a newer 13-21 week primary cycle. It is also the 3rd week of the second 7-11 week half-primary cycle, or third 4-6 week major cycle. Silver made a new yearly high of 1817.50 on Wednesday, which was right in that translation period of Venus to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square, and of the Sun in trine to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. It also occurred right on a powerful lunar reversal day for a crest and reversal. But now we have to see if that was just a 4-5% type of decline that lasts only 1-4 trading days, or the start of a new 2-5 week decline to a primary cycle trough. Judging by the 18-day CCI indicator, it looks like it could be the primary cycle crest, for at that new high, the CCI was at a lower level than it was in early September. This is a case of bearish oscillator divergence if Silver can now just close under the 22-day moving average, which starts this week at 1702. If that happens, I think we will see the 1576 area again, and maybe even down to 1533.50 +/- .67. It is also interesting to note that the high happened the day Venus entered Libra. As suggested before, Silver tends to form a primary cycle low while Venus is in Libra, which in this instance will be in effect until November 6. If it is to work this time, then Silver should be headed down to a primary cycle trough that should be completed in the next three weeks. Yet given that the 22-day MA is holding, and given that Friday was a lunar reversal date for a low, we can't rule out the possibility of a seo0cndary rally into the Sagittarius Factor of Wednesday-Thursday, if so, be especially careful if Gold makes a new high and Silver does not. That would be yet a stronger sell signal.

Lunar cycles for this week (from "The Sun, Moon, and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader"). First numbers represent potential for reversal, where anything above 120 has high probability of isolated top or bottom to trade opposite of, and second column represent "Big Range Day" potentials in which Silver could have a range of at least 35 cents (probably more these days) - good for day trading. * represents strong reversal or big range day. The more * the stronger it is. # represents low likelihood for a reversal or big range day. The more #, the less likely a reversal or big range day.

Oct 14-15 142.7* 244.3*** (more often a high)
Oct 16 136.5* 113.5 (more often a low)
Oct 19-20 51.0## 63.5##
Oct 21-22 95.6 79.0
Oct 23 60.6## 59.5## (if anything forms, it is usually a crest)
Oct 26-27 124.2 91.6 (more often a low)
Oct 28-30 77.4# 00.0 (no volatility 10/28-29)
Oct 30 84.7 187.5** (lots of volatility)

Our strategy: As stated last week, "Aggressive traders could look for a spot to sell short, as we are witnessing bearish oscillator divergence on this new high, where the 18-day CCI is not making a new high along with the price. That high so far happened right on our Oct 7-8 critical reversal date too. However, as outlined last week, I would rather wait until Oct 14-Nov 7, and see if the market has a 2-week or greater decline into that time frame, and then look to buy." If you are short, set your stop-loss above 1820, preferably on a close. If not short, you may look to sell short if prices rally into the middle of this week, and especially if they show any kind of intermarket bearish divergence to Gold. But clearly the better trade may be to wait for 2-3 weeks and look to buy Silver if it is making new 2-week lows for a primary cycle trough.

SH (March Soybeans): Last week's high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 964-967. A close below 964 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 1006-1008. A close above 1008 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A newer bullish crossover zone recently formed at 915-929. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 968-994 (that's where the market closed), and 1044-1048.

I think this starts the 2nd week of a newer 15-21 week primary cycle, following the 888 low of Monday, October 6, which was right on our Oct 6-7 critical reversal date. It was also a double bottom to the 888 low of July 8, which started the prior primary cycle. As stated last week, "That low (Oct 6) was either a contracted primary cycle, or the end to the second major cycle phase of an older primary cycle. The strength of this rally makes me think it is a newer primary cycle. If correct, this could become quite bullish over the next several weeks, for it was a double bottom to the 881 low (in Nov) that started the primary cycle back on July 8."

Strategy: Last week's report stated, "Traders would be advised to switch to bullish trading strategies, buying all corrective declines that do not close below the new bullish crossover zone." We will stay with that advice. The only problem right now is…. Where do you look to buy since the move up was so sharp? It could go to weekly support, but if below there, it could also go back to the new bullish crossover zone. If it goers down that far, then look to buy with a stop-loss under the double bottom at 888.

CLZ (Dec Crude Oil): We are starting it! Last week's close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish. The close was also above the weekly trend indicator point for the 4th consecutive week, which mean s it remains in a trend run up. A close below 72.46 will downgrade it to neutral. Wkly support is 74.61-75.67. A close below 74.61 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 81.32-82.37. A close above 82.37 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A new bullish crossover zone just formed at 74.00-75.67. The market is not bearish until this is broken to the downside.

This starts the 14th week of the 15-23 week primary cycle. It also starts the 4th week of the second 8-12 week half-primary cycle. The price target for the crest of this primary cycle is 80.21 +/- 2.12, with a possibility of going eventually to 84.31 +/- 4.50 or even 89.27 +/- 2.80. I like the first two targets better, which overlap 79.50-82.50. A primary cycle crest is due shortly, and we are nearing our price target. But as long as prices remain above this new bullish crossover zone, we can't get real bearish.

Strategy: There is still room for this market to move higher now, as long as prices remain above 74.00. Therefore traders can buy any corrective declines now that do not move under that level, prior to trading above 79.50. Once they get to 79.50-82.50, aggressive traders can start looking for signs of a top to sell.

 

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

 

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